| Team | Played | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|
Step 1 — Full Match Stats: Enter team names, games played (6–15 recommended), total goals scored & conceded.
Step 2 — 1st Half Stats (Optional): Tap the [＋ 1st Half Stats] button to enter half-time goals. 2nd half values show automatically (read-only). The 1st Half tab becomes visible after calculating.
Step 3 — League Averages: Defaults: Home 1.50, Away 1.20. Toggle Advanced to override for specific leagues.
Step 4 — Calculate: Hit ⚡ Calculate. Results appear across all tabs.
Step 5 — EV Finder: Enter bookmaker 1X2 odds in the Margin Calculator — they auto-fill the EV table below. Enter remaining market odds manually.
Enter team data on the Inputs tab and press Calculate.
Enter team data on the Inputs tab and press Calculate.
Calculate predictions first, then enter bookmaker odds to find value bets.
OddsBreaker uses the Dixon-Coles model with a τ correction of 0.12, computed via a Bivariate Poisson distribution (ρ=0.10) that accounts for inter-team score correlation.
Attack Rating = Goals Scored ÷ Games ÷ League Average. Defence Rating = Goals Conceded ÷ Games ÷ League Average. Then: λH = AttH × DefA × LgAvgH.
The home/away league averages (e.g. 1.50 vs 1.20) already encode home advantage. The asymmetry between them is the home advantage factor — adding a separate multiplier would double-count it.
Adds a ρ correlation term accounting for events (red cards, weather) affecting both teams. Combined with Dixon-Coles' low-score correction, this improves log-loss accuracy by ~2–4%.
EV% = (Model Prob × Bookmaker Odds − 1) × 100. Positive EV = bookmaker offering above fair value. Enter 1X2 odds in the Margin Calculator — they auto-fill the table.
Original D-C paper estimated τ≈0.13 on English football. Cross-league studies find 0.12 more stable across different scoring environments.
OddsBreaker is a statistical research tool. Predictions are probabilistic — not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly. — by Victor Korir